Manual J came back 2.5 tons, homeowner insists the old 5 ton was "barely keeping up" Install
2100 sq ft, 2019 build, decent envelope, blower door at 3.1 ACH50. Ran a full Manual J with actual measured infiltration, real window specs, and the true orientation. Comes back 27,400 BTU sensible at design. Call it 2.5 tons.
Existing unit is a 5 ton that the previous contractor installed in 2019. Homeowner says it "runs constantly in July and barely keeps up."
A 5 ton on a 2.5 ton load should short cycle so badly it never dehumidifies, which is exactly what "barely keeping up" feels like to a homeowner — the thermostat is satisfied and the house still feels swampy.
I am confident in the calc. I am less confident in my ability to sell a smaller unit to somebody who is certain bigger is better. How do you have this conversation?